Related article: I believe 10 year oil contracts are currently set at about 65 dollars. This almost certainly represents our best understanding of what we're going to be paying for oil ten years from now. If some oil expert really knew that oil was about to peak, he would be buying up futures like mad and driving up the price. If he knew oil was much more abundant and that we're in a price bubble, he'd short like mad and drive the futures price down. So the futures price in a free market is a pretty good distillation of current understanding. If you don't believe this is the case, I suggest you put your money where your belief is and start buying oil contracts like mad. One thing you might consider first, however, is that the drop-off in supply will Purchase Femara Online not be linear. As the price of Purchase Femara oil reaches certain price points, alternative supplies will enter the market. Alberta's tar sands have recently been re-estimated to have 175 billion Femara Tablets barrels of recoverable oil at today's prices, giving Alberta the second-largest oil reserves of any country on the planet after Saudi Arabia. If oil doubles in price, the recoverable barrels goes over 300 billion, and shale oil all over North America becomes cost-competitive. Also, oil wells are closed not when they are empty, but when the cost of recovering the remaining oil is so high as to make them uneconomic. At very high oil prices, many of those fields will be re-opened. Plus, alternative energy sources like wind and solar will become a bigger part of the picture as they become more profitable. Next: American energy independence. Here's the thing: oil is a fungible resource. That means that once it comes out of the ground, it's worth the same no matter where it came from. Saudi oil is no more or less valuable than Alberta oil (assuming the same grade). So if the U.S. suddenly stopped buying Saudi oil and instead bought Alberta oil or started Buy Femara Online using an energy source that was home grown but more expensive, all that would do is cause the U.S. to waste money. And the drop in demand from the U.S. leaving the Generic Femara world oil market would cause the price of oil to drop, benefiting everyone else and driving up demand for oil elsewhere. Net result: higher energy costs in the U.S., lower energy costs for everyone else, and an increase in demand for oil by others to offset the U.S. drop Cheap Femara in demand. This is simply not an intelligent strategy from a purely economic standpoint. Femara Price It might make better sense in terms of national defense, but that's a different argument. So the last question is whether or not we can move to an alternative fuel regime in a timely manner. And I believe the answer to that is yes, especially if the real problem takes a few years to appear. The current move to hybrids is important because it gives us a way to disconnect the drivetrain of Femara Mg a car from its fuel source. The power source for the car is electricity. How that electricity is generated doesn't really matter. For example, it would not take much of a change Order Femara Online at all to turn a hybrid into a 'plug-in hybrid'. Add a little bigger battery and a charging plug, and now for short commutes (say less than 50 miles) the gas engine doesn't even come on. You've just completely removed the dependency on gasoline Femara Cost from the car, or reduced the consumption Order Femara to just a fraction of the amount you need now. Perhaps we'll all be driving electric cars that still have gas engines, but the gas engine is really just an emergency charging device. Plug-in hybrids can get 100 mpg on average across the fleet. You still need to generate Buy Cheap Femara the electricity, but we know we can do that. Nuclear power. France gets 70% of its electrical energy Buy Femara from nuclear. The U.S., only 20%. Roughly 175 new reactors could produce enough hydrogen to completely replace gasoline for the U.S. vehicle fleet, assuming no changes in efficiency. So it can be done, and will be if we need to. 8/22/2005 5:04 PM From checker at panix.com Fri Aug 26 01:38:17 2005 From: checker at panix.com (Premise Checker) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 21:38:17 -0400 (EDT) Subject: [Paleopsych] SW: On DNA as Evidence Message-ID: Femara Online History of Forensic Medicine: On DNA as Evidence